Novaspace’s 32nd edition of the Satellite Connectivity and Video Market report reveals a significant shift in satellite service economics. Data applications are set to overtake video services by 2033, with their share of total service revenues rising from 21 per cent in 2024 to 55 per cent by 2034. This transformation marks a fundamental rebalancing of the satellite communications market, driven by NGSO constellations, falling capacity prices, and surging demand across all data segments.

“As data applications surge to dominate satellite service revenues, the satcom industry stands at a turning point” commented Dimitri Buchs, Manager at Novaspace. “Innovation, multi-orbit strategies, and NGSO disruption are not just reshaping market dynamics, but unlocking entirely new frontiers for connectivity, quality of service, and economic growth.”

With a return to service revenues growth expected in 2025, revenues are projected to grow from $101 billion (€86.3bn) in 2024 to $122 billion by 2034. Crucially, all this growth will come from data services, forecasted to triple to $67 billion over the next decade. Every data segment, from land mobility to enterprise networks and government applications, will contribute to this expansion.

Between 2023 and 2025, total capacity supply has seen a 3.5x increase, reaching 105 Tbps. 95 per cent of this supply is from NGSO systems, with 93 per cent attributed to Starlink. Industry players should expect NGSO to account for over 99 per cent of new capacity added between 2025 and 2030. This surge in supply is lowering capacity prices, expanding addressable markets and enabling new applications across land mobility.

The rise of NGSO has also led to a decline in GEO satellite orders, as operators adopt a “wait and see” approach, favouring smaller, regionally targeted satellites over large GEO platforms. As pressure mounts from disruptive NGSO players, traditional GEO operators have been forced to adapt their strategies and are integrating NGSO capability as a competitive and survival strategy.

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Categories: Articles, Markets, Research, Satellite

Tags: data, novaspace, satellite, Video