Advertisers facing a shifting economy are sharpening their focus according to IAB’s 2025 Outlook Study September Update: A Snapshot of the Latest Ad Spend Trends, Opportunities, and Strategies for Growth.

Amid rising tariff concerns and macroeconomic headwinds, ad buyers expect to spend less in the second half of the year than originally projected, leading IAB to lower its 2025 US ad spend projection 1.6 ppts from +7.3 per cent to +5.7 per cent.

Spend in the first half held steady with IAB’s original forecast (+7 per cent), but new sentiment, driven largely by tariffs, pushed the second-half projection down to +5 per cent, driving a lower full-year outlook.

The IAB 2025 Outlook Study September Update is based on a survey of over 200 buyers at brands and agencies to understand their growth strategies, anticipated spend by channel, and the challenges they foresee. 

Tariff Turbulence Rewrites the Playbook

Tariff concerns are driving real-time budget reshuffles. Some 91 per cent of buyers have concerns about how tariffs will affect media spending, and for sectors like auto, retail and consumer electronics, that concern is escalating into action.

These categories, which are heavily reliant on imported products/parts, are being pressured to balance rising costs with unrelenting demands to perform. According to the report, 62 per cent to 69 per cent of buyers expect these industries to be hit hardest, and many are already adjusting spend strategies.

Amid tariff concerns, buyers cite macroeconomic headwinds (41 per cent) and changing consumer habits (40 per cent)  as their top two overall challenges for the rest of the year.

“The marketplace reacts poorly to uncertainty. With tariff impacts starting to roll through the supply chain, there is a lot of hesitance as to where the economy and consumer sentiment will go over the coming months,” said David Cohen, CEO, IAB. “Marketers are laser-focused on maintaining the utmost flexibility while driving short-term performance that delivers on their business goals.”

Buyers Demanding Results Turn to CTV, Social Media, and Retail Media  

Buyers are focused on performance, with customer acquisition being the top goal (64 per cent) and increased urgency on driving repeat purchases (+8 percentage points vs. 2024; 5 percentage points since January’s projection).

Even with the full-year ad spend forecast revised downward by 1.6 points to +5.7 per cent, key digital channels are still expected to post double-digit growth:

• Social Media: +14.3 per cent
• Retail Media: +13.2 per cent
• CTV: +11.4 per cent

“In our January report, we saw real concerns about the economy, and a shift toward performance-driven media. Now that shift is accelerating. If consumers are pulling back, that means every single dollar of ad spend has to earn a return — and that’s more important than ever for auto, retail, and consumer electronics advertisers,” commented Chris Bruderle, Vice President, Industry Insights & Content Strategy, IAB.

Budgets Continue to Shift From Traditional Media

Linear TV will decline -14.4 per cent compared with IAB’s January projection of -12.7 per cent. Other traditional media will decline more than twice as much as projected in January (-3.4 per cent, compared with -1.5 per cent earlier this year.)

“The silver lining in all of this is that the overall attitude of buyers remains positive. Budgets may tighten somewhat, but they’re confident that digital media can deliver the measurable results they need,” concluded Cohen. “This update to our projections should help the industry make the most of the remainder of 2025 while keeping an eye on 2026.”

Other posts by :

1. Bank: AST, Starlink, Kuiper targeting $200bn market
2. Rivada: Is no news good news?
3. SES celebrates Intelsat acquisition
4. Pakistan halts broadband direct-from satellite
5. India stymies Starlink launch
6. Starlink, AST SpaceMobile race for cellular consumers
7. Trouble ahoy for foreign D2D satellites over India?
8. Can Starlink disrupt the US Cellular sector?
9. Bank: “There could be more to come from EchoStar”

Categories: Advertising, Articles, Markets, Research

Tags: advertising, CTV, IAB, tariffs, usa