Forecast: Recorded-music sales to surpass $56bn by 2030
July 15, 2026
Global recorded-music retail sales are predicted to reach $48.3 billion (€42.2bn) this year, surpass the $50 billion mark in 2027, and hit $56.8 billion by 2030, according to forecasts from Omdia.
The latest forecasts point to sustained growth in the recorded-music retail market, with 2026 marking the industry’s twelfth consecutive year of annual sales growth. By the end of 2028, the number of years in which retail revenue has grown this century will exceed the number of years in which it has declined.
Omdia’s figures include consumer spending on physical and digital formats and services, as well as trade revenue from advertising, performance rights, and synchronisation.
Subscriptions, including platforms like Spotify, Apple Music and YouTube Music, are projected to drive much of this growth, with retail sales set to increase by 7.2 per cent this year, to $30.5 billion from $28.4 billion in 2025. By 2030, subscription sales are expected to exceed $37 billion, with a predicted compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 5.4 per cent over the period.
Advertising is set to grow faster than physical sales over the next five years with a forecast CAGR of 4.3 per cent compared with 3.4 per cent for physical formats. However, physical sales will remain the second largest recorded-music revenue source.
Although spending on physical formats is forecast to rise over the next five years, the rate of annual growth is expected to slow, reaching just 1.9 per cent in 2030, when physical sales will be worth $8.3 billion. Combined audio and video advertising revenue is projected to rise 5.6 per cent this year to $5.3 billion, before reaching $6.2 billion in 2030.
Omdia expects China’s rise in the global rankings to continue over the next five years. China entered the top five in 2022, overtaking France, and is set to overtake the UK in 2028 and Japan in 2029. By 2030, China is forecast to account for 8.7 per cent of global recorded-music retail revenue, up from 5.8 per cent in 2025.
The US will remain the clear global leader, although its share of global sales is expected to decline from 40.3 per cent in 2025 to 38.4 per cent in 2030.
“Music companies should be encouraged by our latest forecasts, with plenty of reasons for optimism,” said Simon Dyson, Senior Principal Analyst at Omdia. “Global retail sales are set for new record highs over the next five years, and the $60 billion milestone is expected to be reached early in the next decade.”
Dyson added: “China becoming the world’s second-largest music market is significant news for the industry. The country has long been viewed as a major emerging opportunity, and these forecasts show it is now delivering meaningful value to the global music business.”
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