AdImpact, the advertising intelligence company, projects that the 2026 US election cycle will reach $11.6 billion (€10bn) in spending, making it the most expensive on record. This year’s cycle will surpass the midterm record set in 2022 at $8.9 billion and the $11.2 billion spent during the 2024 US presidential cycle. 

Broadcast television remains the dominant force in political advertising, maintaining 48 per cent of total cycle spending. AdImpact is projecting $5.6 billion in spending, up $330 million from its previous projection of $5.3 billion released in September 2025.

Connected television continues its ascent as the fastest-growing media type in political advertising, with AdImpact revising its projection from $2.5 billion to $2.7 billion, maintaining its 23 per cent share of total cycle spending. Digital spending across Facebook, Google, Snapchat and X has also been revised upward to $1.6 billion, a 9 per cent increase from the original projection.

AdImpact’s updated estimate is driven by a handful of spending increases in statewide Senate and gubernatorial races. Ohio sees the largest increase from initial projections, jumping by $309 million to a revised total of $749 million. Texas and Maine are also leading the growth, with Texas jumping $288 million and Maine increasing $185 million due to early Senate race activity.

Overall, the competitive landscape of the Senate has evolved since last fall, driving an increase from $2.8 billion to $3.4 billion in AdImpact’s latest projection. This marks a 48 per cent increase over 2022 and 27% increase over 2024. In the House, AdImpact is revising its previous projection down from $2.2 billion to $2 billion as redistricting outcomes led to 28 races becoming less competitive.

Gubernatorial spending has risen 25 per cent from AdImpact’s previous estimate, going from $1.9 billion to $2.4 billion. California’s gubernatorial race is on pace to become the most expensive in history, with a projected $351 million. Georgia, projected at $197 million, is on pace to rank among the most expensive gubernatorial races in history.

Additionally, downballot and state legislative spending are on pace to reach record levels in 2026, with a combined projected spend of $3.7 billion, surpassing the prior high of $3.2 billion in 2022. Downballot spending alone is projected at $3 billion, the highest single-cycle total on record. State legislative spending is similarly elevated, with $698 million projected for 2026, up 17 per cent from 2024.

“Current spending is pacing well ahead of previous years, with multiple record-breaking races already concluded and early pre-booking numbers indicating spending will remain strong through the campaign season,” said John Link, Senior Vice President of Data at AdImpact. “As the fallout of redistricting plays out, we expect that the remaining competitive seats will draw more concentrated spending than ever.”

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Tags: adimpact, advertising, election, Trump, usa