Forecast: NGSO to dominate in-flight connectivity
September 11, 2025
Novaspace’s 13th edition of its Prospects for In-Flight Connectivity Report finds NGSO services poised to revolutionise in-flight connectivity (IFC) standards. NGSO’s share of commercial aviation IFC is set to skyrocket from just 1 per cent in 2024 to 63 per cent by 2034, driving 76 per cent of total operator revenues by decade’s end.
“2024 was a transitional year,” says Vishal Patil, Project Manager at Novaspace. “While most installations still relied on GEO-based systems due to legacy contracts, the momentum is clearly shifting. Starting in 2025, we expect NGSO networks to begin replacing older GEO Ku/Ka-band and ATG systems at scale.”
As NGSO networks enter the IFC market in full force, competition is expected to intensify, driving aircraft ARPA stabilisation. However, with the drop in capacity pricing increasing pressure on service providers, the market is positioned for further vertical integration via mergers and acquisitions.
Major strategic moves are already underway to capitalize on the NGSO trend. High-profile partnerships such as the SES-Intelsat merger and the Intelsat-Eutelsat-OneWeb alliance are paving the way for multi-orbit service offerings. These hybrid models aim to combine the reliability of GEO and its ability to densify supply over high-demand areas, with the performance advantages of LEO, offering a best-of-both-worlds solution.
Business and General Aviation operators and commercial airlines are increasingly opting for these multi-orbit models, though the rollout remains constrained by equipment readiness. Many terminals are still in early development stages and yet to be flight-proven at scale, presenting a temporary bottleneck in widespread adoption.
Overall, the number of connected aircraft is set to exceed 67,700 by 2034. Airlines are now actively assessing ways to monetise this IFC revolution as players increasingly move towards providing either full or partially free IFC services. As the market enters this new phase, NGSO adoption will redefine connectivity standards in aviation. To remain competitive, players must adapt quickly with a focus on hardware innovation, strategic alliances, and service differentiation.