Professor Tim Farrar (of TMF Associates), in a blog post, has reviewed and speculated on the much reported SpaceX plans for a global cellular service over and above its existing Starlink broadband service. Bloomberg reported on June 29 that SpaceX was in discussion with Charter Communications – which has operations in 41 US states – about launching a mobile phone service.

Farrar follows up SpaceX’s president Gwynne Shotwell’s comments during the IPO roadshow that helped drive the rumour-mill to “fever pitch” as he terms it.

Farrar comments in particular on the position regarding the US market, saying: “What is not being talked about is the context of a knife fight behind the scenes between SpaceX and T-Mobile over what T-Mobile will pay for the T-Satellite service after exclusivity expires next month. Because SpaceX was desperate to secure a launch partner and pre-empt Apple’s announcement with Globalstar back in August 2022, the current contract is reportedly only valued at “about $100 million” in total since 2022, which means T-Mobile is likely only paying a few million dollars per month for the service. That’s only of order $1-$2 per monthly active user, when less than 10 percent of T-Mobile customers with T-Satellite included in their plan make use of the service in a given month. Or put another way, about $0.10 per month for each customer with access to the service.”

Farrar adds that late last year SpaceX booked an incremental $632 million in – deferred – Starlink Mobile revenues. “That’s far above the current run-rate reported for Starlink Mobile of $85 million in 2026Q1,” stresses Farrar’s note.

In order to now show growth, and the quarterly results will see analysts pouring over SpaceX’s divisional numbers, Farrar says: “SpaceX needs vastly increased revenues from T-Mobile (5-10 times the current level), when (based on the 2026Q1 run-rate) T-Mobile is seemingly paying much less than SpaceX’s other MNO partners.”

Farrar is blunt, and suggests that T-Mobile does not believe the service is worth that much and admits that its exclusive deal with SpaceX to end.

He touches on SpaceX’s Europe’s position with Deutsche Telekom which will be “even more critical”, and the rival AST SpaceMobile relationships with Vodafone and others.

“This is certainly the right time for the MNOs to hold the line on pricing of the Starlink Mobile service, as it will set an advantageous precedent for future D2D services if the wholesale cost for MNOs is in the low tens of cents per customer per month (an order of magnitude lower than the $2-$3/month assumed by many D2D proponents). And it seems hard to imagine SpaceX turning off the T-Satellite service before its own offering is ready in 2028 (though I wouldn’t completely dismiss the possibility of SpaceX completing the EchoStar transaction early and using some of the Band 70 spectrum on the current Starlink DTC satellites),” adds Farrar.

Musk’s very recent comments say: “You should be able to have a Starlink, like you have an AT&T or T-Mobile or Verizon or whatever, you could have an account with Starlink that works with your Starlink antenna at home with free Wi-Fi as well as on your phone. We’re not going to put the other carriers out of business. They’re still going to be around because they own a lot of spectrum. It will allow SpaceX to deliver high bandwidth connectivity directly from the satellites to the phones, but there are hardware changes that need to happen in the phone. You should be able to watch videos anywhere on your phone.”

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5. FCC praises AST SpaceMobile
6. AST SpaceMobile’s August launch plan
7. SpaceX post-IPO value trimmed
8. Thailand’s National Telecom advised to give up satellite slot
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Categories: Blogs, Inside Satellite, Mobile

Tags: mobile, spacex, tim farrar