Forecast: FTTP broadband subs at 1.2bn by 2030
December 9, 2025
Point Topic has released its latest forecasts for fixed broadband subscribers by technology. They are based on on the Global Broadband Subscriber figures for up to Q2 2025.
By 2030 Point Topic is projecting a total of 1.54 billion subscribers to a fixed broadband connection in the 30 largest broadband markets in the world, compared to 1.33 billion in Q2 2025. Full fibre (FTTP), which is already a dominant technology in most of the markets, will be the preferred option for most consumers, where it is available.
Split by technology Point Topic estimates that by 2030 there will be about 1.22 billion FTTP, 152.5 million cable, 56.6 million FTTX, 82.7 million FWA, 10.2 million satellite and 24.4 million DSL lines in these markets. Compared to their previous forecast, Point Topic has increased FTTP and cable lines forecast while lowering the forecast of FTTX and DSL lines. These changes are based on the latest growth trends and some changes in FTTP reporting in some markets (India and Australia, for example).
Between 2025 and 2030, Point Topic projects a 16 per cent growth in total fixed broadband subscribers in the top 30 markets. Most of the net additions will come from FTTP, but growth in (5G) FWA will be far stronger in percentage terms. Point Topic expects FTTP lines to increase by around 23 per cent (+231 million), whereas FWA lines will more than double (rising from 32 million to 83 million).
Point Topic expects cable broadband lines to shrink by around one‑fifth (19 per cent) by 2030 as operators migrate customers to full fibre. The DOCSIS4.0 standard can deliver fibre‑like speeds but Point Topic believes it will be deployed only in limited markets.
FTTX connections (where fibre is present in the local loop with copper, mainly fibre to the cabinet) will shrink by 28 per cent as operators replace legacy networks with full fibre. The decline will be slower in the markets where legacy infrastructure is still wide‑spread. FTTX will remain a competitive option even where other technologies are available as it still offers enough bandwidth to some households.
DSL will see the steepest decline (-42%), mainly serving small or older households that are reluctant to upgrade, or those who have little choice of affordable alternative broadband technologies.
We project that satellite broadband connections will almost double thanks to Starlink as well as other current and emerging projects such as HughesNet, Amazon Leo (formerly known as Project Kuiper), and Eutelsat / OneWeb. Satellite broadband it is becoming a real alternative, especially where fibre or FWA are absent.
Other posts by :
- Netflix gets downgrade on Warner Bros move
- UK trims Orbex investment
- Euro-bank sets up €500m space fund
- Revenue jump forecast for Eutelsat
- Moody’s upgrades Eutelsat’s debt rating
- Rivada Space Networks wins spectrum dispute
- Eutelsat shareholders upset over Rights Issue
- Amazon Leo satellites en route to French Guiana