Report: STBs finding new relevance
June 17, 2025
Global set-top box (STB) shipments fell 1.4 per cent year-on-year in 2024, to end the year at just over 181 million units, according to Futuresource Consulting’s latest market outlook report. With pay-TV subscriber numbers continuing to retreat and alternative content platforms accelerating their expansion, the STB market is navigating a pivotal phase of transformation.
Despite a projected 1.7 per cent CAGR decline in global STB shipments out to 2029, Futuresource also identifies continued relevance for the STB as a managed delivery platform. Operators are increasingly turning to STBs not just for video content, but for integrated services, enhanced UI capabilities and application aggregation.
Regional shake-ups and shifting STB distribution strategies
North America is feeling the brunt of the decline, falling from 80 per cent to below 50 per cent household penetration of pay-TV over the last decade. Meanwhile, regions such as Asia-Pacific and Eastern Europe are showing greater resilience, albeit with modest contraction.
Worldwide, Futuresource expects the pay-TV base to shrink by 33 million households by 2029. To combat churn and market erosion, operators are investing in smarter boxes, transitioning to IP-based delivery and bundling their services. Feature-rich STBs supporting voice control, gaming and third-party streaming services are driving upgrade cycles, particularly among higher-tier operators.
Tariff uncertainty adds a layer of complexity
Geopolitical developments and unfolding tariff regimes in the US market are injecting further volatility into the industry. The Futuresource report explores various tariff scenarios and evaluates how they will impact STB prices and shipments in different ways, based on inflationary pressure and the associated consumer response.
“Vendor agility is now more critical than ever,” said Carl Hibbert, Research Director at Futuresource Consulting. “We’re in the midst of a volatile global economic environment, with increasing competition from connected TVs and retail streamers. And while pay-TV continues to lose ground to streaming, STB’s role remains strategic for operators aiming to retain control over service delivery and customer experience.”
Vendor dynamics and Android momentum
Skyworth, Changhong and ZTE dominate the global vendor landscape, while Android Operator Tier STBs continue to gain share. These are being driven by operator appetite for feature-rich, app-centric platforms. Futuresource expects Android STB shipments to exceed 10 million by 2029, with Latin America and Western Europe showing notable momentum.
“The STB market can no longer focus on sheer volume,” added Hibbert. “Now, it’s all about strategic value. We’re in a world where operators are maintaining a fine balance between managing pay-TV contraction while leveraging STBs as experience enablers, content hubs and gateways to value-added services. To survive and thrive, vendors, operators and platform providers must all look beyond the surface-level trends and unpack the real profit drivers. OS strategies, regional dynamics, regulatory risks and the shift toward hybrid delivery are all essential routes to shaping a successful roadmap.”