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Forecast: Africa smartphone market to see modest growth in 2025

May 27, 2025

Africa’s smartphone market kicked off 2025 on a high note as regional shipments grew for the eighth consecutive quarter. According to Canalys (now part of Omdia), shipments climbed 6 per cent year on year in Q1 2025, reaching 19.4 million units. While other regions saw weaker demand for entry-level devices, Africa benefited from resilient offline retail activity and renewed vendor focus on broad-based market coverage. Q1 momentum was also supported by targeted policy moves in key markets, easing currency volatility and early-year product refreshes aimed at the value-conscious segment.

Egypt remained North Africa’s top market, with shipments growing 34 per cent year on year in Q1 2025. This surge was driven by IMEI whitelisting to tackle grey-market devices, greater macroeconomic stability and a renewed emphasis on local manufacturing. Algeria’s smartphone market witnessed 16 per cent growth, supported by a mix of government policies, telecom advancements and growing consumer demand. The ‘DZ Mob Pay’ launch in Q1 and earlier mobile payment initiatives are driving digital adoption.

In Sub-Saharan Africa, South Africa led the way with 14 per cent growth, driven by government efforts such as removing a 9 per cent luxury excise tax on smartphones priced under ZAR2,500 ($137) and phasing out 2G/3G networks to expand access to 4G and 5G. Conversely, Nigeria’s market contracted 7 per cent amid ongoing economic pressures, which shifted consumer focus toward essentials. Nonetheless, the country’s large, youthful and tech-savvy population continues to represent long-term potential. Kenya saw modest 1% growth, but early signs are positive, driven by the steady adoption of flexible financing models.

“After seven straight quarters of growth, Transsion saw a 5 per cent annual dip in Q1 2025,” commented Manish Pravinkumar, Principal Analyst at Canalys (now part of Omdia). “Competitors have begun replicating their three-tier channel model, built on national distributors, regional wholesalers and micro-retailers offering credit, promotions, and localized after-sales support. This has enabled deep reach, but rivals are now winning over young shoppers with sleeker designs, better specs and bolder marketing. Samsung, holding a 21 per cent market share, performed strongly in South Africa and Egypt. Even as it pushes premium devices, its A-series models such as A06 and A16, comprise 60 per cent of its total shipments, highlighting mass-market appeal. Xiaomi posted 32 per cent growth, led by Egypt and Nigeria, and a robust performance of the Redmi 14C and A-series models. Oppo grew 17 per cent, blending local assembly pilots with omnichannel pushes around its A-series and Reno lines. Honor saw rapid 283 per cent growth, lifted by its premium Magic series and 5G bundles with MTN and Vodacom, which lifted its brand visibility and demand across key markets.”

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