Japan’s fixed communication services revenue is set to remain largely stable between 2025 and 2030 as steady expansion in fibre broadband offsets the continued decline of traditional voice services. The shift underscores a structural transition in the country’s telecom market, where operators are prioritising high-speed connectivity and bundled offerings to defend revenue growth in an otherwise mature and highly saturated fixed-line sector, reports GlobalData, the intelligence and productivity platform.

GlobalData’s Japan Fixed Services Forecast (Q4-2025) forecasts that fixed communication services revenue in Japan will grow from $26.4 billion (€23bn) in 2025 to $26.9 billion in 2030, maintaining a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of just about 0.4 per cent, driven by continued growth in fixed broadband services.

Fixed voice service revenue will drop at a CAGR of 1.8 per cent over the forecast period as operators offer free voice telephony as a part of multi-play bundled plans. Fixed broadband service revenue, on the contrary, is expected to increase at a moderate CAGR of 1.3 per cent, supported by steady growth in fibre-optic access lines.

Neha Mishra, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, commented: “Fibre will remain the leading broadband technology, increasing its share of total fixed broadband subscriptions  from 87.9 per cent in 2025 to 88.8 per cent in 2030. Growing demand for high-speed broadband connectivity, government’s focus on fibre-optic network expansion and the gradual phasing out of DSL services in the country will support the growth in fibre broadband subscriptions over the forecast period. Japan aims to achieve 99.9 per cent residential fibre-optic coverage by the end of 2027.”

NTT led the fixed broadband services market in 2025 and is expected to maintain its leadership through 2030. NTT maintains its leadership in the fixed voice market through its strong presence in both circuit-switched and VoIP segments. In the fixed broadband segment, NTT attracts a wide customer base by offering diverse tariff plans, including fixed-rate options and tiered pricing based on data usage, catering to both entry-level and premium users.

Neha concluded: “Japan’s fixed services market will remain defined by fiber-led connectivity and bundled digital services. As broadband becomes the core revenue engine, operators will increasingly focus on network upgrades, premium speed tiers and value-added services to sustain growth. Competitive differentiation will depend on service quality, pricing flexibility and the ability to monetise high-capacity fibre networks.”

In a March 17th update, Globaldata also reported that Japan’s mobile services market is set for steady but modest expansion through 2030, as surging mobile data consumption offsets the structural decline in voice and messaging revenues. Rising smartphone usage, premium 5G adoption, and growing IoT connectivity will underpin this shift, reshaping operator revenue models and reinforcing data-driven growth as the primary engine of the country’s evolving telecom landscape.

GlobalData’s Japan Mobile Communications Forecast (Q3 2025) reveals that the country’s mobile services revenue is expected to grow at a modest compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.1 per cent from $48.7 billion in 2025 to $51.4 billion in 2030.

Sarwat Zeeshan, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, commented: “Mobile voice service revenue will decline at a CAGR of 2 per cent over the forecast period, due to the increasing consumer shift towards OTT/internet-based communication platforms, and the subsequent decline in mobile voice ARPU levels. Mobile data service revenue, on the other hand, will increase at a CAGR of 2.1% between 2025 and 2030, driven by the continued growth in mobile internet subscriptions, and increasing consumption of mobile data services, most importantly with increasing adoption of higher ARPU-yielding premium 5G services.”

The average monthly data usage over mobile networks is forecast to increase from 16.6GB in 2025 to 25GB in 2030, driven by the growing consumption of online video and social media content over smartphones, on the back of data-centric packages offered by telcos.

5G will remain the leading mobile technology in terms of subscriptions through 2030, thanks to the ongoing 5G network modernization efforts by major MNOs, greater availability and affordability of 5G smartphones and telcos offering premium 5G plans.

The evolution and expansion of 5G networks will also add fillip to the M2M/IoT service adoption in the country as companies explore new IoT/M2M use cases enabled by 5G networks. M2M/IoT subscriptions are expected to grow at a CAGR of 7.2 per cent over the forecast period.

NTT led the mobile services market in Japan in terms of mobile subscriptions in 2025, followed by KDDI. NTT will retain its leading position through to 2030, supported by its strong focus on M2M/IoT offerings and 5G network expansion and modernisation to serve the rising demand for high-speed services by customers.

Zeeshan concluded: “Japan’s mobile market is entering a phase where growth will depend less on subscriber expansion and more on the monetisation of data-rich services. Operators that scale premium 5G, accelerate IoT ecosystems, and package high-value digital services effectively will be best positioned to sustain revenue momentum in an increasingly data-centric telecom landscape.”

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Tags: fibre, globaldata, japan