Data from Deutsche Bank’s deep dive into SpaceX’s Starlink broadband by satellite (and its Direct-to-Device, D2D connectivity) forecasts that Starlink broadband will be worth about ~$33 billion in 2030, while Starlink D2D is estimated at about ~$10 billion.

D2D is going to be far less valuable than broadband because it can’t match up to terrestrial performance expectations, suggests the bank’s study.

Professor Tim Farrar (of TMF Associates), in a reality check, says that SpaceX’s broadband can get along fine with more broadband Version 2 satellites (“minis”). Direct To Consumer needs the improved Mobile version of V2.

“But 1,200 satellites is plenty of capacity for about ~200 million active DTC users (say 2 billion+ mobile subscribers with access). So not a hard choice to prioritise the 1,200 DTC in the near term (once ready) then switch to broadband Version 3,” said Farrar.

The bank adds that it estimates that Starlink has some 10.3 million consumer subscribers at the moment (out of 12+ million overall) and is available in 164 markets. The bank’s forecast suggests 102 million consumer subscribers by 2031.

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Categories: Articles, Broadband, Markets, Research, Satellite

Tags: Deutsche Bank, starlink