Forecast: IPL media rights to plateau in 2028–32
March 24, 2026
Media Partners Asia (MPA) has published a report offering an analysis of the Indian Premier League’s media rights economics, franchise financials and valuation dynamics.
The The IPL: Teams, Rights & Valuations report finds that IPL media rights are approaching a structural ceiling, with the 2028–32 cycle projected to be flat at $5.4 billion (€4.6bn), effectively ending two decades of compounding growth.
Key Findings:
- IPL media rights revenues have grown sixfold since the first cycle in 2008, reaching $5.4 billion in the current 2023–27 period. MPA projects the 2028–32 cycle to be flat at $5.4 billion in total, but a 13 per cent decline per match, from $13.2 million to $11.5 million, as the expanded 94-match format adds volume without commensurate value. The competitive dynamic that drove the near-threefold increase in the 2023–27 auction will not be repeated. The Viacom18-Disney merger that created JioHotstar has eliminated the primary source of competitive tension.
- IPL rights holders face cumulative losses of $1.8–2.0 billion across the current cycle. Total advertising revenue grew at just 7 per cent CAGR over the last three seasons, against 18 per cent CAGR in the prior cycle. Policy-driven exits by ed-tech and real-money gaming, combined with a BCCI ban on crypto advertising, have narrowed the advertiser base materially, while new global macro pressures will continue to potentially impact advertiser demand, partially offsetting growth from new sectors such as AI.
- Media rights now account for 75 per cent of total franchise revenues, up from 48 per cent in 2017. EBITDA margins have expanded from an average of 10% in the first cycle to 34 per cent currently, but this operating leverage amplifies downside exposure when rights values correct. Non-media revenues are growing at 22 per cent CAGR since the pandemic, but from a low base.
- Franchise stake sales are accelerating. MPA believes franchises are advancing liquidity plans in anticipation of limited upside from 2028.
Mihir Shah, Vice President, India at Media Partners Asia, commented: “The IPL has created extraordinary value over two decades, but the conditions that drove that growth are now shifting in ways that are structurally consequential. The rights reset in 2028 will not be a correction to be absorbed and forgotten. It marks the beginning of a period in which franchise value creation depends on building the non-media revenue base, focusing on sponsorship, international presence and digital monetisation. Owners and investors who are pricing franchises today on current EBITDA multiples need to factor in both the rights cycle headwind and the concentration risk it implies. The window at current multiples may be shorter than the market assumes.”
Franchise Scorecard
The report includes MPA’s composite franchise scorecard, assessing all ten IPL teams across championship wins, playoff appearances, social media following, and international presence. Mumbai Indians ranks first (360/400) and Chennai Super Kings second (320/400). Royal Challengers Bengaluru ranks fourth (230/400), its leading social media position, anchored by Virat Kohli’s 274 million individual following, offset by a single championship title from 18 seasons, no international franchise presence, and concentrated icon player risk. Punjab Kings (90/400) and Lucknow Super Giants (100/400) rank at the foot of the scorecard.
On the rights outlook specifically, MPA notes that JioHotstar recently breached 70 million concurrent users during the ICC T20 World Cup finals, and digital viewership records are expected to be broken again in the 2026 IPL season. Audience scale, however, has not translated into the monetisation required to sustain current rights pricing, and the structural gap between streaming revenues and streaming costs remains the central constraint on 2028 valuations.
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