Ahead of the 98th Academy Awards, analysis from the British Board of Film Classification (BBFC) reveals the ‘winning formula’ for films to claim gold at the Oscars.

Tracking the 38 films that won across the six major categories (Best Picture, Best Director, Best Original Screenplay, Best Original Score, Best Actor and Best Actress) over the last decade, the analysis suggests that gritty, grown-up dramas that are over two hours long and deal with content themes including sex and violence are the way to win big at the Oscars.

Two thirds (67 per cent) of winners across these categories in the last decade were rated 15 or 18 by the BBFC, with that figure rising to 100 per cent over the last three years (2023–2025) — showing that the Academy’s appetite for gritty, adult content is intensifying.

In 2025, every winner was rated 18 (including Anora and The Brutalist), the first time this has happened in the last decade. This is a stark comparison to 2022, when every winner across all six categories was rated 12A or 12 (CODA, The Power of the Dog, Belfast, Dune, King Richard, The Eyes of Tammy Faye).

Mature, complex themes win big

The data shows that Oscar-winning films are traditionally not the stuff of family film nights. Over the last decade, just two PG-rated films have won a major Oscar: Darkest Hour (Best Actor, 2018) and Soul (Best Original Score, 2021).

In the last ten years, Best Original Screenplay appears to be the most ‘adult’ category, with more than three quarters (80 per cent) of winners rated 15 or 18, compared to less than two thirds (60 per cent) for Best Actor, Best Actress, and Best Original Score.

Strong language is the most consistent content marker. 90 per cent of winners across the six major categories received a BBFC language flag — and for Best Director, Best Actor, and Best Actress, the figure is 100 per cent.

And the prevalence of strong language is rising. In the first half of the decade (2016–2020), over 86% of winners were flagged for language, rising to more than 93 per cent in the last five years.

Much like strong language, violence is increasing. During the first half of the decade (2016–2020), 50 per cent of films featured violence, increasing to 73 per cent during the second half of the decade (2021–2025).

However, the picture is mixed. Violence is least prevalent in the acting categories (40 per cent for both Best Actor and Best Actress), compared to 70 per cent for Best Original Screenplay and Best Original Score. It is also much more volatile. In 2017, Oscar-winning films were completely violence-free (La La Land, Moonlight, and Manchester by the Sea), while 2018 swung to 83 per cent, with The Shape of Water, Get Out and Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri all carrying strong violence flags.

Family-friendly box office hits not favoured at the Academy Awards 

The gap between Oscar trophies and box office smash hits is clear. Three quarters (73 per cent) of winners over the last decade were not in the UK box office top ten in their year of release, with just two of the last ten Best Picture winners among Britain’s most commercially successful films.

In five of the last ten years (2016, 2017, 2022, 2023, and 2025), not a single Oscar winner across any of the six major categories made the UK box office top ten.

The decade’s second half was markedly less commercial than its first. From 2016–2020, a third (37 per cent) of winners made the top ten. But from 2021–2025, that drops to just one in five (17 per cent).

Star power drives success 

The pull of big-name actors seems to be the biggest driver of commercial performance among Oscar winners. Half of all Best Actor winners over the decade made the UK top ten (Darkest Hour, Bohemian Rhapsody, Joker, The Father and Oppenheimer) compared to just one of Best Original Screenplay winners (Parasite, 2020). Overall, films that win Best Actor or Actress are twice as likely to be commercial hits as non-acting winners (40 per cent vs 20 per cent).

Best Original Screenplay, however, remains the least commercial category according to the data, with nine out of ten winners also failing to make the year’s most-watched films.

Winners are getting longer 

The average runtime across the decade is 131 minutes, but the trend is sharply upward — from just 106 minutes in 2021 to 177 minutes in 2025. Longer runtimes also track with higher age ratings: 18-rated winners average 166 minutes, more than 35 minutes longer than PG-rated winners.

The Oscar-winning formula

The winning formula, however, varies by category. For the acting awards, strong language is non-negotiable, but violence is secondary. For Best Picture and Best Director, expect both. Across every category, though, the common thread holds: a 15 rating, mature themes, a runtime over two hours — and almost certainly not a UK box office hit.

Therefore, the data suggests it could be a good night for One Battle After Another (pictured), rated 15, with mature themes including strong language and sex references — matching the typical winning profile closely. Marty Supreme is also a contender: a long film (149 mins), which aligns with the upward trend. Similarly, it has all the content flags of an Oscar winner, rated 15, with strong language and violence.

David Austin OBE, Chief Executive of the BBFC, commented: “Our classification data offers a unique window into the types of films that resonate with Oscar judges, and the picture is clear. Our analysis shows that films for adults, with mature themes – including strong language and violence – take home gold at the Academy Awards. But regardless of what takes home the award on the night, our role remains the same: to provide clear, trusted age ratings and content advice that empower audiences to make informed viewing choices, whether they’re watching the ceremony or catching up on the highlights afterwards.”

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Categories: Articles, Content, Research

Tags: BBFC, Joker, Oppenheimer, Oscars