Japan’s telecom and pay-TV services revenue is set to grow at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 2.2 per cent during 2024-2029, driven by the rising demand for high-speed mobile data and robust fibre broadband adoption. While voice and legacy TV segments continue to decline, accelerating 5G penetration and advancements in fibre technology position Japan as a global leader in digital connectivity transformation, reports GlobalData, the data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s Japan Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report reveals that the mobile data service will increase at a CAGR of 4 per cent from $37.8 billion (€33bn) in 2024 to $45.9 billion in 2029, driven by the continued growth in smartphone subscriptions and mobile internet usage especially on 4G/5G networks. Operators too are monetising the rising demand for high-speed data services through higher ARPU-yielding premium 5G plans, adding to revenue growth.

Neha Mishra, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, commented: “4G services accounted for the largest share of mobile services market, in terms of subscriptions, in 2024. However, its share will decline over the forecast period due to the continued migration of subscribers to 5G services.”

Growth in 5G subscriptions will be supported by the ongoing 5G network expansion efforts of all major MNOs and the growing availability and affordability of 5G smartphones and segmented 5G plans. For instance, KDDI and SoftBank plan to expand their 5G networks by jointly building 100,000 base stations each by March 2031, through their 5G Japan Corporation joint venture.

In the fixed communication services segment, fixed voice service revenue will decline over the forecast period, due to a drop in circuit switched subscriptions and a decline in voice ARPU levels. Fixed broadband service revenue, on the other hand, will grow at a CAGR of 1.6 per cent over 2024-2029 period, driven by robust growth in FTTH subscriptions.

Mishra added: “Fibre lines led the fixed broadband services market in terms of total broadband connections in 2024, driven by the growing demand for high-speed internet connectivity and the government’s push for nationwide fibre expansion. For instance, the country is advancing its goal of achieving 99.9 per cent fibre coverage by 2027

Japan also set a global broadband speed record of 402 Tbps in July 2024, achieved by the National Institute of Information and Communications Technology (NICT) using existing fibre infrastructure. This milestone underscores the capabilities of fibre networks in enabling ultra-high-speed data transmission, reinforcing Japan’s leadership in fibre innovation.

Pay-TV services revenue in Japan will remain flat through 2029, as growth in IPTV revenue will help partially offset the decline in cable TV and DTH revenues over the forecast period. Growing consumer preference for OTT platforms like Netflix and Disney+ will also impact pay-TV revenue growth in the country.

NTT led both the mobile and fixed communication services market in Japan in 2024 and will maintain its lead, given its strong focus on technology innovation and advancements. The telco is actively engaged in the research and development for 5G evolution and 6G technologies. For instance, in July 2024, NTT launched Japan’s fastest 5G standalone service, achieving download speeds up to 6.6 Gbps.

In fixed communications market, NTT caters to a wider customer base i.e., from limited usage customers to premium users through its diverse tariff plans, including fixed-rate options and tiered pricing based on data usage.

Mishra concluded: “Japan’s strong focus on R&D and infrastructure modernisation, from 5G standalone to next-gen fibre optics, will play a pivotal role in shaping the country’s digital future. Operators that leverage this innovation to create tailored, high-value offerings will secure long-term subscriber loyalty and unlock new monetisation opportunities in an increasingly competitive market.”

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Categories: Articles, Broadband, Markets, Pay TV, Research, Telco

Tags: 5G, Disney, globaldata, japan