The 18th edition of Novaspace’s Earth Observation Satellite Systems report finds 5,770 EO satellites set to launch by 2034, fuelling a $182.6 billion (€155bn) market surge, as national defence priorities shape space strategy. As geopolitical instability drives interest in sovereign EO assets, defence and civil satellites are positioned to overtake commercial deployments .

“A new generation of defense suppliers is emerging as countries look to promote the development of national EO ecosystems, with momentum expected to increase in the coming years,” said Federico Banfi, project manager at Novaspace. “This shift in priorities is accelerating procurement cycles and offering the market more agile, cost-effective, and modular systems supported by advanced software and AI.”

Going forward, defence satellites are poised to lead new deployments. This trend is increasingly visible with recent projected budget cuts in commercial Earth observation data procurement reinforcing this strategic shift. US agencies are increasingly prioritising data from internal, defence-operated assets over commercial sources, driving the move toward sovereign, secure space capabilities.

This growth is enabled by the miniaturisation of technologies supporting the deployment of smallsat constellations in various types of orbits, carrying an increasing range of sensors that could be hosted on-board. 2025 marks the start of the Very Low Earth Orbit (VLEO) and VVHR era, set to disrupt competition going forward. The Chinese Chutian constellation deployed its first prototype in 2024 and is preparing for larger deployment this year. In the US, commercial players have also started deployment, signaling a new generation of high-resolution, low-latency capabilities.

Performance, longevity, and cost efficiency now outweigh mass as key priorities. Heavier smallsat associated enhanced capabilities meet growing defence and mission demands, while launch costs remain manageable. Sub-50 kg satellites, once 82 per cent of commercial launches, are expected to drop below 50 per cent, highlighting this market is shifting toward more complex and diversified missions.

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