ScotiaBank confuses market over AST SpaceMobile
January 9, 2026
Over the past year, analysts at investment bank ScotiaBank have been enthusiastic supporters of AST SpaceMobile’s prospects. But on January 6th, the bank conducted an about-turn, and – in effect – advised clients to ‘Sell’ their shares in AST. As well as pouring ice-water on AST, the bank’s specific wording was “sector underperform” and the bank suggested that a fair valuation for AST’s shares would be in the $45-$55 range.
The bank’s comments were blunt: “AST faces an uphill battle [when compared to Elon Musk’s Starlink]”.
AST’s shares are currently around $88. A few days prior to the bank’s report they were riding high at $98, and helped by positive news on the recent launch of AST’s BlueBird #6 craft and that its vital solar arrays had reportedly been successfully deployed. BlueBird #7 is awaiting launch from Cape Canaveral.
As far as ScotiaBank’s analyst Andres Coello is concerned, AST’s shares are in a “valuation bubble”, and that recent significant rallies in the stock price have overvalued the business which still has many uncertainties ahead, not least getting another 40-60 satellites into orbit without mishap. His concerns regarding delays in satellite shipping and the time required (estimated until 2028 or 2029) to generate meaningful free cash flow.
A major worry is that AST has no retail exposure. It has plenty of wholesale contracts in place with some of the world’s major telcos. In fact, AST has no plan to deal direct with the general public and will depend on approximately 50/50 revenue sharing schemes with cellular operators.
However, ScotiaBank’s own forecasts for AST remain solid. The bank says that ASST’s EBITDA is forecast to jump from $516 million this year (where limited deployments are expected) to more than $15 billion by 2030 and Free Cash Flow going positive by 2027 and hitting close to $18 billion by 2032. As part of those forecasts, the bank suggests that AST’s profit margins will be more than 90 percent.
Contrary to ScotiaBank, Bank of America on January 8th raised AST’s share price target from its previous $85 per share to $100. It cited “positive” impacts on AST’s manufacturing cadence, launch cadence, initial space service and full space service. Bank of America repeated its “Neutral” rating for AST, adding: “2025 was a watershed year for LEO. We expect the momentum to intensify in 2026 as providers like ASTS and Starlink jockey to offer full cellular service and capture subscribers. Debates will likely grow regarding Starlink’s plans to offer full cellular service and regulatory decisions on Ligado and EchoStar spectrum transactions are events to watch. Carrier partnerships could evolve and pricing and plan decisions should be clearer by year end as ASTS approaches full constellation operability.”
ScotiaBank’s forecasts for AST are:
Free Cash Flow
· 2027: $2.7 billion
· 2028: $3.5 billion
· 2029: $6 billion
· 2030: $11.6 billion
· 2031: $16.6 billion
· 2032: $17.8 billion