Forecast: 2026 to see biggest domestic box office since Covid
January 8, 2026
After a year that ultimately did not perform the way most of the industry expected, 2025 closed with little to no meaningful improvement over the year prior, reports Cinelytic – the AI-driven data analytics platform for the entertainment industry. Domestic box office (DBO) totals once again landed at roughly $8.6 billion (€7.3bn), marking the second consecutive year at that level and underscoring how stubborn the recovery has been despite a fuller release slate and improved theatrical conditions.
That said, the team at Cinelytic once again stood firmly behind the projections they published at the close of 2024, finishing the year with an overall forecast accuracy of approximately 94 per cent. As the graphic below highlights, this continues a successful trend, with Cinelytic’s DBO forecasts consistently landing between 94 per cent and 96 per cent accuracy for three consecutive years:
For a sneak peek at how these projections played out on a title-by-title basis, the visualisation below highlights several recent releases from the final months of 2025, showcasing select accuracy wins as those films completed their theatrical runs:
To kick-off 2026, Cinelytic has again delivered an early, in-depth look at what’s ahead for the domestic theatrical market. In November 2025, the Cinelytic team analysed the full slate of 2026 major releases, running advanced projections to forecast both annual and monthly DBO performance. This analysis covered 70 major titles set for wide release, with a breakdown of releases by distributor as follows:
2026 Forecasts
After 2025 delivered just a 1 per cent increase over the prior year, 2026 is shaping up to represent a far more meaningful step forward. While Cinelytic does not yet see the market reclaiming the $10 billion threshold, the trajectory is seemingly improving in what will likely be the strongest DBO year of the post-Covid era.
At Cinelytic, the latest data-driven forecast calls for approximately $9.6 billion in 2026 DBO revenue, representing an 11 per cent year-over-year increase from last year’s stagnant results. The monthly and quarterly projections show momentum building across the year, with Q3 and Q4 projected to deliver the strongest performances for those periods in the post-Covid state of industry.
Methodology
The Cinelytic platform harnesses the power of 19 key project attributes, using proprietary algorithms and machine learning to perform advanced predictive analyses on major titles. Cinelytic has also incorporated late 2025 major releases that are expected to continue driving box office revenue into the first quarter of this year.
This includes factoring in a projected share of early 2026 DBO revenue from high-profile year-end titles such as Zootopia 2, Avatar 2: Fire and Ash and Marty Supreme, among others.
What’s Fueling the 2026 Recovery?
The projected 11 per cent lift in 2026 is driven by two primary factors. First, several major titles were pulled from the 2025 release calendar at late notice and repositioned into 2026, including high-profile examples such as Mortal Kombat II and The Bride! from Warner Bros Pictures.
More importantly, however, 2026 marks a meaningful return of large-scale, historically proven IP and franchise filmmaking. This includes a notable resurgence from Marvel, which has not delivered a true breakout hit since Deadpool & Wolverine in 2024, but returns this year with Spider-Man: Brand New Day and Avengers: Doomsday, both backed by the full force of Disney’s global marketing engine and franchises that rank among the highest-grossing of all time.
The slate is further bolstered by an array of recognisable, high-upside titles such as The Super Mario Galaxy Movie, Scream 7, Supergirl, Jumanji 3, Toy Story 5, Minions 3, Dune: Part Three, The Devil Wears Prada 2, The Mandalorian and Grogu (pictured) and a live-action Moana.
Complementing these franchises is a strong lineup of large-scale, non-franchise films generating strong early momentum from elite filmmakers, including Project Hail Mary from Phil Lord and Chris Miller, Disclosure Day from Steven Spielberg, and The Odyssey from Christopher Nolan, to name a few. Taken together, this mix of delayed tentpoles, franchise-heavy releases, and premium original filmmaking underpins Cinelytic’s confidence in a materially stronger DBO performance in 2026.