New Zealand’s telco and pay-TV services revenue is forecast to increase at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 1.2 per cent from $3.2 billion (€2.7bn) in 2024 to $3.4 billion in 2029, mainly supported by the mobile data and fixed broadband service segments, reports GlobalData, the intelligence and productivity platform.

GlobalData’s New Zealand Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report reveals that the  mobile voice service revenue will decline during the forecast period, due to the free bundling of voice minutes by MNOs into their mobile plans, rising user preference for internet/app based communication services and the subsequent decline in mobile voice ARPU levels.

Mobile data service revenue, on the other hand, will continue to increase at a healthy CAGR of 5.8 per cent over the forecast period, fuelled by a spike in mobile internet subscriptions, more importantly growth in 5G subscriptions leading to a considerable increase in mobile data ARPU levels over the forecast period.

Srikanth Vaidya, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, commented: “4G services accounted for a majority share of the overall mobile subscriptions in 2024 and will remain the leading mobile technology through 2029. However, 5G subscriptions will increase at a faster pace over the forecast period, driven by the ongoing 5G network expansions by major MNOs, and wider availability and affordability of 5G smartphones.”

For example, in September 2025, One New Zealand added four new sites (including two with 5G) and upgraded 18 existing sites to 5G. This brings its year-to-date digital infrastructure total to 206 new or upgraded cell sites, with 155 now 5G-enabled, thus expanding fast, stable connectivity for more customers.

Fixed broadband service revenue will grow at a CAGR of 2.5 per cent over 2024-2029 period, driven by the growth in FTTH and fixed wireless subscriptions, on the back of efforts by the government and operators to expand broadband connectivity in the country. For example, in July 2025, broadband wholesaler Chorus announced that it had extended its fiber network into 59 new communities across New Zealand, significantly expanding access to high-speed, reliable broadband.

Pay-TV service revenue will decline over the forecast period, due to the continued drop in DTH subscriptions with the growing user preference for OTT video services, and the subsequent decline in aggregate pay-TV ARPU.

Vaidya concluded: “One New Zealand will maintain its lead in the mobile services market through the forecast period thanks to its wider 4G coverage and efforts to expand its 5G network infrastructure. The telco invested more than NZD100 million (€49.5m) in FY2024 to upgrade and expand nearly 300 mobile sites, significantly strengthening its 4G and 5G coverage nationwide. In the fixed services segment, Spark led the fixed broadband service segment in 2024 and will retain its leadership through 2029.”

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Tags: globaldata, new zealand, pay TV, telco