Analyst: How disruptive could Starlink be?
June 11, 2026
A report from Sam McHugh, senior analyst at BNP Paribas Equity Research, asks: ‘How disruptive could Starlink be in broadband globally, and specifically in the US?’.
“In this note we unveil findings of new US STAMP survey data, combined with work on the capacity and economics of SpaceX’s broadband business, to shed light onto its capacity for disruption,” said McHugh.
He continued: “We start by providing a brief overview of Starlink broadband and the rockets that launch their satellites. We outline our expectations for global subscriber capacity and lay out a base case for the economics of Starlink broadband (from an Opex + Capex $ per sub per month perspective, including a sensitivity analysis based on launch costs and subscribers).”
“We then focus on potential subscriber capacity in the US, by analyzing household density across >3,000 counties, which we pair with new STAMP data on Starlink demand to inform our view on its potential to be incrementally disruptive in the US. We then quantitatively screen for telcos at risk in Europe,” said McHugh.
His key findings are that Starlink needs its giant Starship rocket, but then it could be truly disruptive. “The current V2 satellite constellation is unlikely to be materially disruptive in developed markets, however a fully scaled V3 constellation (reliant on Starship) could be, supporting >300m subscribers globally and >25m in the US. At scale Opex + Capex per sub could approach $20, well below terrestrial alternatives, giving them a significant cost advantage. Our new US STAMP data suggests Starlink needs to do more to improve satisfaction with quality, but we find there could be demand to drive the business to 20m subscribers in the US… so who is most impacted?”
McHugh suggested that Starlink won’t have it easy – and to expect a fightback and more price deflation.
“Assuming Starship works, Starlink’s bigger issue is likely to be competition/demand and not capacity. We don’t expect terrestrial providers to go down without a fight. Specifically in the US pricing is already down $10-15 in the last year, and our work on Starlink increases our conviction in our materially below consensus cable and fiber ARPUs. Charter and Cable One are most at risk,” he concluded.
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