China’s telecom and pay-TV services revenue is predicted to grow, albeit at a modest compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.5 per cent, from $471 billion (€400.7bn) in 2024 to $483 billion in 2029 with broad-based declines in mobile voice service revenues offsetting expected gains in mobile data segment, according to forecasts from GlobalData, the data and analytics company.

GlobalData’s China Telecom Operators Country Intelligence Report reveals that mobile voice service revenue will decline significantly at a CAGR of 19 per cent between 2024 and 2029, due to the consumer shift towards OTT communication platforms and the subsequent decline in mobile voice ARPU.

Mobile data service revenue, on the other hand, will increase at a CAGR of 5.3 per cent over the same period, due to the continued increase in 5G subscriptions and the subsequent rise in mobile data ARPU. Increasing mobile internet usage enabled by MNOs’ premium mobile data plans will also drive mobile data revenue growth over the forecast period.

M2M/IoT subscriptions will grow at a CAGR of more than 8.5 per cent over 2024-2029, as the enterprise adoption of M2M/IoT led solutions grows supported by 5G technology advancements and telcos’ efforts to drive new M2M/IoT use cases. For instance, China Mobile offers a suite of IoT solutions, including Smart Port, Smart Factory, Smart Airport, Smart Energy, and Smart Healthcare, to enhance operational efficiency through real-time monitoring, automation, and intelligent analytics across various industries.

Sarwat Zeeshan, Telecom Analyst at GlobalData, commented: “5G subscriptions accounted for 70.2% share of the total mobile subscriptions in 2024 and will remain the dominant mobile technology over the forecast period. This growth will be driven by the MIIT’s support for 5G infrastructure development in the country, the ongoing 5G network expansions by MNOs, and wider availability of affordable 5G plans. As of Q1 2025, China deployed nearly 4.4 million 5G base stations, reflecting its rapid 5G infrastructure expansion.”

In the fixed communication services segment, fixed voice service revenue will decline over the forecast period, due to losses in circuit-switched subscriptions and declining fixed voice ARPU. Fixed broadband service revenue will also decline over the forecast period, albeit marginally, due to the slower growth in new fixed broadband lines and decline in fixed broadband service ARPU.

Zeeshan added: “Fibre will remain the dominant technology to deliver fixed broadband services across China, thanks to the ongoing investments by operators and the government in fibre-optic network expansion. China aims to expand its 1,000 Mbps optical fibre networks to cover all counties and township seats along its borders by the end of 2025.”

Pay-TV services revenue in the country will increase over the forecast period, supported by the subscription gains in the IPTV segment and marginal increase in overall pay-TV ARPU over the forecast period.

Zeeshan concluded: “China Mobile led the mobile services market in China in 2024 and will retain its leadership position over the forecast period through its 5G network investments. The operator is also focusing on innovative M2M/IoT services to drive opportunities in the enterprise segment. In fixed communications market, China Mobile will lead the fixed broadband segment through to 2029, supported by its considerable presence in the fibre segment and a strong focus on upgrading gigabit broadband network across the country.”

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Tags: 5G, china, globaldata, IOT, pay TV