A detailed report from analysts at Bank of America (BoA) says that the global Total Addressable Market (TAM) is currently worth around $200 billion (€169.5bn) annually for the planet’s telcos. The bank suggests that the satellite operators with global coverage with their low Earth orbiting (LEO) satellites are potentially targeting every dollar’s worth of these revenues.

The bank divides the $200 billion market into:
· Wireless at $30 billion
· Wire-line at $41 billion
· Defence at $10 billion
· Other/misc. at $100 billion

BoA expands the rationale behind its numbers, saying that as far as ‘Wireless’ is concerned it believes there is the potential to capture a portion of the world’s 5.4 billion connected population and the 2.7 billion of the “unconnected population”. The bank believes there’s a 25 per cent share up for grabs from these numbers, with most telcos themselves offering satellite services as ‘bolt-on’ to their existing pricing structures. The bank adds that it estimates a $24 billion TAM for the connected portion of the market, and $5 billion for the unconnected population.

As for the Wire-line consumer broadband market, worth $41 billion in TAM, this – says the bank – represents a large market opportunity for LEO operators especially in rural and unconnected communities. The report says there are some 670 million addressable households globally. “ARPUs will vary based on demographics and competition, but Starlink is charging [a typical] $80 per month for its ‘residential lite’ service and $120 per month for its ‘residential’ service.” The bank adds – correctly – that fees for Starlink in lower GDP countries are lower ($60 in Mexico, $40 in Nigeria). The bank estimates a $25 billion TAM for the connected population, and $15 billion TAM for the unconnected population globally.

BoA suggests Aviation and Maritim services are estimated as $1 billion TAM annually. Defence ($10 billion TAM) is said to be currently about 20 per cent of the global space economy.

Observers suggest that despite Starlink’s 7 million+ current customers that AST SpaceMobile is in a better position and is in a much stronger position than Starlink’s current Direct-To-Consumer offering. The suggestion is that if AST can capture over 50 per cent of that wireless D2D TAM, that would equate to – perhaps – be worth $15 billion globally, per year.

However, the general opinion is that satellite-based LEO craft will complement and supply services including in existing ‘dead zones’ and provide 100 per cent connectivity, and save millions in having to build new terrestrial ‘towers’.

Joe Russo, AT&T’s EVP Global Networks speaking at an industry conference, said: “So now we’re in the data world of satellite technology. And my goal is in these areas where the less than 1 percent areas where people live, work, and play, if I can find a way to start to build capabilities for customers to do all the things they love to do on a terrestrial network, then we want to be there, which is why we partnered with AST. And we think they bring great technology and super innovation to get us beyond emergency texting into more and more value-added services over time. But that’s not here today.”

Other posts by :

1. AST SpaceMobile’s BlueBird/FM1 enroute to India
2. D2D satellite battle hots up
3. Eutelsat share price rockets
4. AST SpaceMobile recovers after Verizon agreement
5. Bank has mixed messages for AST SpaceMobile
6. EchoStar clears key regulatory hurdles for Starlink deal
7. Starlinks falling to Earth every day
8. 650 Starlink D2C craft in orbit
9. Bank upgrades SES to ‘Buy’

Categories: Blogs, Broadband, Inside Satellite, Satellite

Tags: Amazon Kuiper, AST SpaceMobile, Kuiper, starlink