Analysis: HFSS restrictions hit short-term sales potential
July 20, 2026
Analysis from creative effectiveness platform System1 shows the HFSS advertising restrictions introduced in January 2026 have reduced the short-term sales potential of advertising across affected food categories, while long-term brand-building performance has remained broadly unchanged.
Analysing advertising across HFSS-affected sectors, System1 found that Spike Rating, its predictor of short-term sales potential, has declined on average 8.3 per cent since 2025. The largest falls were seen in confectionery and convenience, while convenience also experienced declines in brand recognition, alongside bakery.
The findings suggest many brands have successfully adapted their creative to build long-term brand equity but have struggled to replace the highly branded, sales-focused creative techniques that traditionally drove immediate purchase.
System1’s findings suggest that the brands adapting best are replacing traditional sales-led techniques with more emotionally engaging creative, using storytelling, characters, humour and distinctive brand assets to build both long-term growth and short-term commercial impact.
System1’s Test Your Ad platform measures long-term brand-building potential through Star Rating, predicts short-term sales potential with Spike Rating, and measures brand recognition using Fluency Rating.
Andrew Tindall, Chief Growth Officer – Advertising at System1, said: “HFSS has made it harder to rely on the traditional tricks of food advertising: mouth-watering product shots, price promotions and direct calls to action. Those cues have always been brilliant at driving short-term sales. The brands adapting best haven’t stopped selling. They’ve simply become more entertaining. Tesco’s The Fruit Giant tells a memorable story while making the brand impossible to miss. Uber Eats uses Gordon Ramsay to amplify its distinctive assets, not replace them. And Warburtons proves that years of building a consistent brand world are more powerful than any single promotion. The rules have changed, but the objective hasn’t. The brands that stay memorable and distinctive will stay competitive.”
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