Bank: TeraWave not a direct threat to AST SpaceMobile
January 26, 2026
A report from analysts at Bank of America looks at the Blue Origin/TeraWave mega-constellation scheme. TeraWave’s constellation will consist of 5,280 LEO satellites and 128 MEO satellites. Deployment is scheduled to begin in Q4 2027.
The bank said that TeraWave adds to the long list of planned satellite constellations but is not a direct competitive threat to AST SpaceMobile. AST targets the direct-to-device D2D market largely through mobile network operator (MNO) partnerships and an estimated $35 billion (€29.5bn) TAM (total addressable market).
“TeraWave, as planned, would be a more direct competitor to enterprise grade telecommunications providers in our view. TeraWave is targeting – 100K customers served versus the millions in a direct-to-device (D2D) business model,” said the bank.
The bank admits that one dilemma for AST is its promised launch cadence. It has confirmed an “end February” launch date on a Blue Origin New Glenn rocket for its BlueBird #7/FM2 satellite, but is on record as saying that it is targeting a launch every 45 days or so throughout most of 2026. AST has contracted launch commitments covering 75 launches.
The bank stays ‘Neutral’ on AST’s share price prospects with a price target of €100 per share.
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