Bank: “Charter racing to the bottom”
January 30, 2026
A report from senior analyst Sam McHugh at investment bank BNP–Paribas on US cable giants Charter Communications and Comcast is not positive. The bank’s report says that US cable has become more aggressive following their commentary around fibre being promotional in Q4 2025.
“Comcast is discounting heavily around the Winter Olympics, while it appears Charter did not raise broadband prices in Q1 2026 ($3 in Q1 2025 and $2 in Q3 2025), raising TV prices only, while Optimum is advertising 3–4 months of free services.
It appears cable is feeling incremental pressure – understandable given FWA/fibre reached new heights last quarter,” said BNP. The bank is blunt, saying that it has updated its estimates but not in positive directions: “We cut our cable ARPU growth estimates and Charter target price down to $160.”
This forecast is not optimistic given that Charter’s stock price was $193 on January 26th.
The bank’s report continued: “Having announced a decision to defer price increases in early ’26, we had previously assumed [Charter] would raise rates in July – this is no longer our base case, and we reduce our Comcast ARPU growth in 2026 from –0.6 per cent to –2.2 per cent. Charter is most exposed to deteriorating net–adds, and we now assume Charter only raises rates once in ’26 (mid–year), so we cut our ’26 broadband ARPU assumptions and now expect an –2.2 per cent decline in 2026 vs consensus of 2.3 per cent growth.”
As for Comcast, which by any measure is now a complicated portfolio of cable an broadcast assets, the bank also marks down its target price for the company, to $28 which is a modest cut from its current price of around $29.
The bank says: “Comcast could disappoint bulls on messaging around an NBCU spin, which could reverse recent performance, but hope may linger long given the prospect of [Paramount Skydance] turning to NBCU if they fail to acquire Warner Bros Discovery. We remain more sceptical of a deal there with both parties likely wanting control, and Comcast Corp hesitant on Joint–Ventures (post Hulu), but this and de–risked [short–term] numbers leave us ‘Neutral’.”
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