Advanced Television

Forecast: 10,000+ software-defined satellites in orbit by 2031

May 1, 2025

According to a report from technology intelligence firm ABI Research, the number of newly launched active digital and software-defined satellites in orbit supporting cloud-native networks is projected to exceed 10,000 by 2031, driven by the rise of next-generation Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite networks and network unification efforts.

“As the United States, Europe and China ramp up investments in LEO satellite networks to compete in the new Space Race, there is an increasing emphasis on software-driven, multi-mission space operations to support both national and commercial objectives,” explained Andrew Cavalier, Senior Space Tech Analyst at ABI Research. “At the same time, the industry is experiencing rapid consolidation and advancing toward network domain unification – driven by standardisation and vertical integration –to improve access to space through more flexible, efficient, and accelerated supply chains.”

Amid this evolving industry and geopolitical landscape, the winning space strategy now focuses on flexible digital space operations as part of a full-stack space solution that encompasses the entire space value chain, enabling companies and governments to adapt swiftly to global changes.

Cellular standards are increasingly embracing the concept of terrestrial and satellite network unification to create a multi-dimensional system optimised for dynamic resource allocation, spectrum sharing, and global interoperability.

According to Cavalier, “Emerging technologies like Software-Defined Satellites (SDSs), Software-Defined Ground Stations (SDGSs), and Software-Defined Wide Area Networks (SD-WANs) will play a crucial role in unifying systems by enabling the programmability and reconfigurability of satellite networks.”

Satellite networks embracing the cloud are the critical next step for the space industry to unlock the speed, scalability, and flexibility that countries demand of modern space architectures. As such, advancing sovereign space capabilities for commercial and defense applications increasingly depends on unifying networking capabilities – driven by satellite and ground station operators adopting cloud-native architectures and integrating with NTN-compliant terrestrial networks—to break down silos between the telecom and satellite ecosystems.

Many satellite network operators are seizing this opportunity to invest in their networks or collaborate with technology companies. Networks like Amazon’s Project Kuiper,  SpaceX’s Starlink, Globalstar’s C-3, Telesat Lightspeed, Iridium, Rocket Lab, Eutelsat OneWeb, and more are exploring new opportunities with vendors like Thales Alenia Space, Lockheed Martin, Boeing, Airbus Space, MDA Space, among others, to deliver advanced flexible and software-defined satellites networks via cloud-native networking principles and enhanced vertical integration.
Chinese operators such as Spacesail, China Satellite Network Group, and Shanghai Landspace Technology are also accelerating the development of their satellite constellations to strengthen national defense and security systems. These multi-application networks are expected to collectively account for more than 30,000 next-generation satellites in Low Earth Orbit.

“To seize the growing NTN opportunity in the satellite market, ecosystem players must recognize the value of 3GPP standardisation, software-defined payloads, and the cloudification of ground networks,” added Cavalier. “The opportunity to enable the mass commercialisation of space and enter an age of ubiquitous connectivity is imminent. Moving forward, it will be crucial to collaborate with local governments and ecosystem players to align regulatory policies, align priorities in networking architectures, and strengthen digital symbiosis across domains.”

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