Iridium lowers forecasts
October 27, 2025
By Chris Forrester
Specialist satellite operator Iridium, which provides highly-secure connectivity to the world’s governments, military and first-responders in disaster situations, has altered its forecasts for the next few years.
The company’s core Q3 results were solid, with revenue of $226.9 million (€195m) vs analyst estimates of $223.2 million (6.7 per cent year-on-year growth). Iridium, with its 66 low Earth orbiting satellites, currently has 1.99 million subscribers.
Looking forward, Iridium has tightened – and lowered – its full-year service revenue growth forecast to approximately 3 per cent and expects operational EBITDA to be between $495 million and $500 million.
It emerged that the company is exploring strategic mergers and acquisitions to enhance its technological capabilities and market reach.
CEO Matt Desch highlighted the company’s proactive approach to navigating changes in the satellite market. “We will be proactive and pivot to strengthen our position amid ongoing changes to the satellite market landscape,” Desch stated. He also expressed confidence in Iridium’s ability to generate strong cash flows, noting, “Iridium is unique in the satellite industry in that we generate strong cash flows with reasonable capital cycles.”
Despite the positive comments the market recognises the challenges ahead, which come from other Direct-to-Device suppliers, not least Starlink, Kuiper, OneWeb and AST.
Desch told analysts: “I’m confident we will be successful and can continue to grow revenues as the market for satellite services evolves. Iridium has focused on providing unique, specialised services in the satellite industry. While we have some areas of overlap with other satellite providers, we have never sought to participate in price-driven commodity markets, and we don’t plan to now […] As we think about our long-term future and think about the services we’d include in a follow-on constellation, we will look to opportunities that provide us with the greatest return on capital, and for now 5G broadband doesn’t fit that profile for us.
Desch freely admitted that M&A activity would be a “bigger focus” for Iridium. Discussions were ongoing with potential partners including some with “large consumer footprints”.
However, one analyst was blunt: “I see no possible business model for Iridium by 2030. How do they compete with either Starlink or $ASTS? There is no path for them. This is an example of the clear duopoly that will form. If Iridium can’t compete with their already built out constellation, who can?”
Another analyst suggested that by 2030 the company would be acquired, if only for its valuable global spectrum rights.
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