D2D satellite battle hots up
October 13, 2025

A report from analysts at CreditSights has looked at the prospects for satellite delivered ‘direct-to-device’ (D2D) telephony and broadband. The report says that for the new entrants – the likes of SpaceX’s Starlink, AST SpaceMobile and Amazon’s Kuiper – the promise of D2D is that satellite companies will be able to access a much larger addressable market (6 billion phones worldwide) at a much lower cost than traditional satellite services. CreditSights also hints that Viasat’s Inmarsat division could sell off some of its own valuable spectrum.
Authored by David Herbert, head of research at CreditSights, also cautions, saying: “While the technology is undoubtedly exciting, the pathway to monetisation is less clear, and we question if the industry will be large enough to support multiple players. He reminds investors that the recent SpaceX acquisition of 50 MHz of EchoStar spectrum (for $17 billion) “supercharges the company to provide superior D2D services than competitors. While this opportunity could take years to realise, SpaceX has unmatched access to capital and is looking to deploy up to 15,000 satellites dedicated to D2D with this spectrum.”
“AST SpaceMobile (AST) stock has been on a tear this year, up 300 per cent and more than doubling even after SpaceX’s spectrum purchase from EchoStar was announced on September 8th. Its $29 billion market cap exceeds that of traditional satellite players Viasat, Telesat, Eutelsat and SES combined, suggesting tremendous optimism for the company’s D2D strategy. We note that AST has yet to debut global service (likely next year) but has partnerships with more than 50 MNOs worldwide, including Verizon, AT&T, Vodafone and Bell Canada,” says Herbert.
But he repeats his cautionary warning, saying: “With D2D getting significant attention (and value assignment), we went through our coverage universe to determine if any might be well positioned to benefit directly in the sector. Unfortunately, we see little upside in D2D from companies in our coverage universe, with SpaceX and AST both heavily equity-funded stories. Most companies on our coverage list either lack low-band spectrum (eg SES, Eutelsat, Telesat) to participate directly in D2D or lack capital to invest to the level of SpaceX and ASTS. Viasat has low-band spectrum holdings in L-Band and S-Band via its Inmarsat subsidiary and is pooling its resources with Space42 in a JV called Equatys. It is unclear how or when Viasat might benefit from D2D, but we think it would be challenging from a capital perspective for the company to develop plans to the level of SpaceX or AST.”
“Low-band satellite spectrum has historically had little value, since the use cases had been very niche-y, including satellite-only phones (high cost, small Total Addressable Market) and critical connectivity to ships and airplane cockpits. However, the spectrum has taken on newfound value in the D2D landscape, where satellites can tap into a smartphone market that exceeds 6 billion worldwide. SpaceX most recently validated this view, having agreed to acquire 50 MHz of spectrum from EchoStar for $17 billion (~$1.05 per MHz POP) and ASTS having agreed to lease L-Band spectrum directly from Ligado and indirectly from Inmarsat. We currently rate Inmarsat Outperform, with part of our thesis around the spectrum value, as well as potential indirect benefits from a D2D sale or spinoff,” Herbert concludes.
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