A report from equity analysts BNP-Paribas reminds investors that on June 2nd, the FCC is slated to begin a small re-auction of AWS-3 spectrum, covering licences that originally sold for $3.4 billion. “Even if bids came in twice as high, it likely wouldn’t move the needle for the wireless names. But a dark horse has emerged that threatens to scuttle this benign outlook,” suggests the bank’s report.

“Normal FCC auctions follow familiar patterns, with carriers first settling bids in big markets that capture the bulk of proceeds before allocating remaining funds to less critical, small markets. This note begins with a deep-dive into the traditional dynamics that drive such bidding, concluding that while Verizon should be most aggressive, AT&T likely tops them, with T-Mobile bringing up the rear,” the bank says.

The banks note then turns to why SpaceX is likely to bid for these licences too. “First, we show how most licences being re-auctioned are for small markets where SpaceX’s fledgling direct-to-cell services are most likely to work, offering ‘cheap optionality’ for incremental market access. Then, we unpack how winning a 10MHz AWS-3 licence would free up another 20MHz of spectrum SpaceX is already buying, nearly doubling the bandwidth it can deploy to unmodified phones in these markets today,” adds the report.

“It’s likely that re-auction results will come out before the carriers report Q2 2026 earnings. While markets typically punish carriers that overspend on spectrum, if the wireless players don’t spend enough to prevent SpaceX from picking up a substantial number of licences in the reauction, investors may fret about an existential threat gaining an incremental foothold in the market. While we continue to believe that investor concerns about competition in wireless are overdone (with T-Mobile most insulated ), the AWS-3 re-auction may prevent that view from being reflected in the wireless names, at least in the near term. We also still think the market underappreciates the extent to which competition is rising in broadband, and see a more imminent threat from satellite in broadband,” concludes the bank’s report.

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Tags: bank, FCC