Bank rates Eutelsat ‘Neutral’
May 19, 2026
BNP Paribas equity analyst Geoffrey D’Halluin has reiterated the firm’s opinion on satellite operator Eutelsat with a ’Neutral’ rating, although saying that the bank has “tweaked” its guidance and raised its price target from €2.1 per share to €2.7. BNP Paribas says that Eutelsat’s LEO revenues will grow by 50 per cent y-o-y.
The bank says: “This is driven by the higher blended 2026 calendarized EBITDA multiple in our SOTP (7.7x vs. 6.7x previously) to reflect recent progress and opportunities, particularly in LEO. However, we reiterate our Neural rating. We see a balanced risk/reward on Eutelsat: declining Video segment, higher industry competition but improved balance sheet, strong growth in the LEO segment, and likely well placed to benefit from the space/sovereignty theme in Europe.”
“In terms of outlook,” says the bank’s report, “Eutelsat confirmed its full-year financial targets:
i) revenue of the four operating verticals in line with the FY 2024-2025 level,
ii) LEO revenues to grow by 50% year-on-year and iii) adjusted EBITDA margin slightly below the previous year.
Meanwhile, gross capital expenditure is expected around €900 million, and ND/EBITDA is estimated at ~2.7x at the end of the fiscal year.
As far as Eutelsat’s investment case is concerned, the bank says “Eutelsat still has sizeable exposure to Video activity, competition is growing and FCF generation is likely to remain negative in the coming years, notably on elevated capex. However, the recent capital raise improved the group’s balance sheet while also funding investments in the growing LEO constellations. Meanwhile, we think Eutelsat is well placed to benefit from the space policy and sovereignty themes in Europe. As a result, we see a balanced risk/reward.”
As to upside risks, the bank summarises, saying: “The main upside risks are: 1) faster growth than expected at OneWeb, 2) slower decline GEO connectivity, 3) lower competition pressures, and 4) higher value for C-band spectrum rights.”
On the downside: “The main downside risks are: 1) faster decline in the Video activity, 2) slower trends at OneWeb, 3) renewed pressure on balance sheet on slower operating trends in a time of elevated investments, and 4) fiercer competition than expected with new LEO constellations ramping up,” states the bank.
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