MENA’s pay-TV revenues will fall by $1.6 billion (€1.46bn) between peak year 2016 and 2029, mainly as a result of the OTT push and widespread piracy, according to the Middle East and North Africa Pay-TV Forecasts report from analyst firm Digital TV Research. Pay-TV revenues for 20 MENA countries will drop by 43 per cent between 2016 ($3.8 billion) and 2029 ($2.2 billion). This comes despite the number of pay-TV subscribers growing by 3 million over the same period to 18 million – so ARPUs will fall.

Thirteen of the 20 countries will lose revenues between 2023 and 2029. Turkey and Israel together will supply nearly half of the 2029 total.

Pay-TV revenues for the 13 Arabic-speaking countries will be $802 million by 2029; half of the $1.57 billion recorded in 2016. Turkish revenues will reach $707 million in 2029; $203 million lower than 2016. Pay-TV revenues in Israel will drop from $1.14 billion to $376 million over the same period.

“Legitimate pay-TV penetration has always been low in most MENA countries, but the decline is accelerating as pay-TV subscribers convert to OTT platforms,” commented Simon Murray, Principal Analyst at Digital TV Research.

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Tags: Digital TV Research, MENA, OTT, pay TV, piracy